State sentiment rises slightly Consumers in upstate New York became slightly less confident about the economy in the second quarter, according to a new report. Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 76.6 in the second quarter, down 3.1 points from the last measure of 79.7 in the year’s first quarter. That’s according to the […]
State sentiment rises slightly
Consumers in upstate New York became slightly less confident about the economy in the second quarter, according to a new report.
Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 76.6 in the second quarter, down 3.1 points from the last measure of 79.7 in the year’s first quarter. That’s according to the latest quarterly survey of Upstate and statewide consumer sentiment that the Siena College Research Institute (SRI) released on July 7.
Upstate’s overall sentiment of 76.6 was 7.1 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 83.7, which rose 1.2 points from the first quarter.
The statewide number was 1.8 points lower than the second-quarter figure of 85.5 for the entire nation, which rose 0.6 points from the first quarter, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.
The overall and future indexes for New York each increased in the second quarter and remain above the breakeven point at which optimism and pessimism balance. The current index also increased and is at breakeven. The overall and future national indexes increased but New Yorkers continue to be more optimistic about future economic conditions than the nation, SRI said.
“Consumer sentiment continued to climb this quarter driven by increases in New York City, among Democrats and as the state’s lowest income-bracket residents start to see light at the end of their economic tunnel. Overall, New York is up 17 points from the initial COVID shock as belief in a better tomorrow is now nearly as strong as it was before the pandemic,” Doug Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director, said in the report. “Upstate isn’t moving towards ‘Happy Days’ as quickly as NYC but outside of the City the future looks brighter than it did in March 2020. Demand for major consumer goods is very robust, up 20 percent over March 2020 for cars, 31 percent for furniture, and 82 percent for home improvements. But, as concern over the impact of gas now exceeds 50 percent and approaches two-thirds for food, price increases, or inflation, could slow this recovery.”
In the second quarter of 2021, consumer buying plans rose 4.7 percentage points from the first-quarter measurement to 22.5 percent for cars/trucks; edged up 0.1 points to 47.2 percent for consumer electronics; increased 3.4 points to 13.4 percent for homes; and rose 3.4 points to 34.5 percent for major home improvements. Buying plans were down 0.2 points to 31.8 percent for furniture.
Gas and food prices
In SRI’s quarterly analysis of gas and food prices, 57 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, which is up from 47 percent in the first quarter and 29 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020.
In addition, 54 percent of statewide respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly spending plans, up from 43 percent in the first quarter and 34 percent in the final quarter of 2020.
When asked about food prices, 64 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, up from 56 percent in the first quarter and from 58 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020.
At the same time, 63 percent of statewide respondents indicated the price of food was having a serious effect on their monthly finances, up from 57 percent in both the first quarter of 2021 and the final quarter of 2020.
SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment between June 16 and June 29 by random telephone calls to 404 New York adults via landline and cell phone. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, according to SRI.