Upstate consumer sentiment inches up in December

New York consumers closed out 2013 with a focus on the holidays but didn’t display much positive movement in their overall willingness to spend money.

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York rose 1.7 points to 69.1 in December, according to the latest monthly survey that the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released Jan. 6.

Upstate’s overall sentiment index of 69.1 is a combination of the current sentiment and future-sentiment components. Upstate’s current-sentiment index of 72.4 fell 1.9 points from November, while the future-sentiment level increased 3.9 points to 66.9, according to the SRI data.

The Upstate figure was 4.5 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 73.6, which edged up 0.3 points from November, SRI said.

New York’s consumer-sentiment index was 8.9 points lower than the December figure for the entire nation of 82.5, which rose 7.4 points from November, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

Overall, consumer sentiment statewide was “flat,” says Donald Levy, SRI director.

“If you just take a snapshot of this moment in time versus a year ago, we’re [statewide consumer sentiment is] down about five percent [for all of 2013],” Levy says.

Some demographic groups were down more than others over that time period, according to the SRI data.

The sentiment indexes for Democrats and consumers under age 55 were down “appreciably,” about 10 percent for all of 2013, Levy says. The sentiment levels for lower-income consumers (those with annual salaries of less than $50,000) were also down “significantly,” or 8 percent for the year, he added.

It was a year when consumer sentiment hovered near the break-even point (a level of 75 at which overall optimism and pessimism are balanced), but “never really got meaningfully across it,” Levy says.

That’s despite the best year for investors on Wall Street since 1997, consumers paying gas prices that are below $4 per gallon, and an unemployment rate that is down, although “not overwhelmingly.”

“We still see the mythical average consumer sitting here hopeful but cautious,” Levy says.

When compared with the previous three years, the state’s overall consumer sentiment of 73.6 is down 3.7 points from December 2012, up 6.3 points from December 2011, and has increased 8 points compared to December 2010, according to the SRI data. The sentiment index measured just 57.1 in December 2008.

Besides determining consumer sentiment, SRI’s monthly survey also examines respondents’ plans for buying big-ticket items in the next six months.

In December, buying plans rose 1.1 points to 20.4 percent for furniture and increased 2.3 points to 15.3 percent for major home improvements. Buying plans slipped 2.1 points to 11.9 percent for cars and trucks and decreased 3.4 points to 34.9 percent for consumer electronics.

Buying plans for homes remained unchanged at 4 percent, according to the SRI data.

Gas and food prices

In SRI’s monthly analysis of gas and food prices, 63 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, up from 60 percent in November.

In addition, 54 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of gas, up from 50 percent in November, according to SRI.

When asked about food prices, 71 percent of Upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, up from 67 percent in November. About 67 percent of statewide respondents expressed concern about their food bills, up from 66 percent in November.

SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment in December by random telephone calls to 622 New York residents over the age of 18.

As consumer sentiment is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply, SRI contends.

Buying plans, which are shown as a percentage based on answers to specific questions, have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 points.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com

New York consumers closed out 2013 with a focus on the holidays but didn’t display much positive movement in their overall willingness to spend money.

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York rose 1.7 points to 69.1 in December, according to the latest monthly survey that the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released Jan. 6.

Upstate’s overall sentiment index of 69.1 is a combination of the current sentiment and future-sentiment components. Upstate’s current-sentiment index of 72.4 fell 1.9 points from November, while the future-sentiment level increased 3.9 points to 66.9, according to the SRI data.

The Upstate figure was 4.5 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 73.6, which edged up 0.3 points from November, SRI said.

New York’s consumer-sentiment index was 8.9 points lower than the December figure for the entire nation of 82.5, which rose 7.4 points from November, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

Overall, consumer sentiment statewide was “flat,” says Donald Levy, SRI director.

“If you just take a snapshot of this moment in time versus a year ago, we’re [statewide consumer sentiment is] down about five percent [for all of 2013],” Levy says.

Some demographic groups were down more than others over that time period, according to the SRI data.

The sentiment indexes for Democrats and consumers under age 55 were down “appreciably,” about 10 percent for all of 2013, Levy says. The sentiment levels for lower-income consumers (those with annual salaries of less than $50,000) were also down “significantly,” or 8 percent for the year, he added.

It was a year when consumer sentiment hovered near the break-even point (a level of 75 at which overall optimism and pessimism are balanced), but “never really got meaningfully across it,” Levy says.

That’s despite the best year for investors on Wall Street since 1997, consumers paying gas prices that are below $4 per gallon, and an unemployment rate that is down, although “not overwhelmingly.”

“We still see the mythical average consumer sitting here hopeful but cautious,” Levy says.

When compared with the previous three years, the state’s overall consumer sentiment of 73.6 is down 3.7 points from December 2012, up 6.3 points from December 2011, and has increased 8 points compared to December 2010, according to the SRI data. The sentiment index measured just 57.1 in December 2008.

Besides determining consumer sentiment, SRI’s monthly survey also examines respondents’ plans for buying big-ticket items in the next six months.

In December, buying plans rose 1.1 points to 20.4 percent for furniture and increased 2.3 points to 15.3 percent for major home improvements. Buying plans slipped 2.1 points to 11.9 percent for cars and trucks and decreased 3.4 points to 34.9 percent for consumer electronics.

Buying plans for homes remained unchanged at 4 percent, according to the SRI data.

Gas and food prices

In SRI’s monthly analysis of gas and food prices, 63 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, up from 60 percent in November.

In addition, 54 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of gas, up from 50 percent in November, according to SRI.

When asked about food prices, 71 percent of Upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, up from 67 percent in November. About 67 percent of statewide respondents expressed concern about their food bills, up from 66 percent in November.

SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment in December by random telephone calls to 622 New York residents over the age of 18.

As consumer sentiment is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply, SRI contends.

Buying plans, which are shown as a percentage based on answers to specific questions, have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 points.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com