Upstate consumer sentiment plunges in October

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York fell 6.5 points to 65.2 in October, according to the latest monthly survey the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released today.

Upstate’s overall-sentiment index of 65.2 is a combination of the current-sentiment and future-sentiment components. Upstate’s current-sentiment index of 73.1 is down 6.9 points from September, while the future-sentiment level decreased 6.3 points to 60.1, according to the SRI data.

The Upstate figure was 4.4 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 69.6, which was down 6.6 points from September, SRI said.

At 69.6, the state’s consumer-sentiment level is at lowest level in nearly two years, according to SRI.

New York’s consumer-sentiment index was 3.6 points lower than the October figure for the entire nation of 73.2, which was down 4.3 points from September, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

 The government shutdown threw consumer sentiment into “reverse” in October, Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director, said in a news release.

“Re-opening the government softened what could otherwise have been an all time one month drop in consumer sentiment. Nationally the index was down over four points and hit its lowest point in over a year while New York fell nearly seven points to a low we haven’t seen since December of 2011. Every demographic group dropped in confidence with women, older residents and those earning over [$100,000] taking the largest hits,” Lonnstrom said.

SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment in October by random telephone calls to 750 New York residents over the age of 18.

As consumer sentiment is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply.

Buying plans, which are shown as a percentage based on answers to specific questions, do have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 points, SRI said.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com