Upstate consumer sentiment rises in Q4 in Siena survey

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York and statewide rose in the fourth quarter, compared to the prior quarter but remained well below pre-pandemic levels, according to a new survey.

The Siena College Research Institute (SRI) measured upstate New York consumer sentiment at 65.5 in the fourth quarter, up 6.4 points from the last measure of 59.1 in the third quarter of 2022. The results were part of the institute’s latest quarterly survey of consumer sentiment released on Jan. 4. 

SRI measured the statewide consumer-sentiment level at 72.3, up 1.5 points from the third quarter. The statewide figure was 12.6 points higher than the fourth-quarter reading of 59.7 for the entire nation, which was up 1.5 from the third-quarter number, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

New York’s current index increased nearly 3 points to 66.7 and the future index edged up nearly 1 point, resulting in New York’s measure of future expectations moving up from 75.2 in the third quarter to 75.9 in the fourth quarter. Both the New York and national indexes all increased about 1-3 points. 

Overall confidence remains higher in New York than across the nation. Future confidence in the Empire State is just above the breakeven point of balanced optimism and pessimism and 16 points higher than national future confidence. 

Both New York’s consumer sentiment and the nation’s consumer sentiment “picked up ever so slightly” over the fourth quarter with New York’s index continuing to outpace the country’s by nearly 13 points, according to Don Levy, SRI director.

“While Democrats and New York City residents record scores that display more optimism than pessimism, the largest increases in sentiment this quarter were among Republicans — up nearly 8 points — and Upstaters — up over 6 points,” Levy said in the SRI report. “Lingering inflation, food prices, and political uncertainty may explain NY’s current sentiment measurement remaining over 20 points lower than the pre-pandemic level. Still, demand for major consumer goods is high most especially for cars/trucks at over 25% the highest since fall of ‘19.” 

In the fourth quarter of 2022, buying plans were up 3.8 percentage points from the third-quarter measurement to 25.5 for cars and trucks. Buying plans were down 2.9 points to 26.1 percent for major home improvements, edged down 1 point to 28.4 percent for furniture, slid 2.2 points to 44.8 percent for consumer electronics, and declined 2.5 points to 11.5 percent for homes, the SRI said. 

Gas and food prices

In SRI’s quarterly analysis of gas and food prices, 68 percent of upstate New York respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, which is down from 74 percent in the third and second quarters of 2022 and 73 percent in the first quarter.

In addition, 66 percent of statewide respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly spending plans, down from 69 percent in the third and second quarters of last year and the same as the figure from the first quarter of 2022.

When asked about food prices, 80 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, down from 84 percent in the third quarter of 2022 and from 82 percent in the second quarter.

At the same time, 79 percent of statewide respondents indicated the price of food was having a serious impact on their monthly finances, up from 78 percent in third quarter of 2022 but down from 80 percent in the second quarter of last year.

SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment on Dec. 12 and Dec. 13 by random telephone calls to 403 New York adults via landline and cell phone. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, the institute said.