The cold weather of the winter season and the heating bills that followed may have hindered upstate New York consumers’ willingness to spend in March, according to an analyst at Siena College who tracks the data. Consumer sentiment in upstate New York fell 5.3 points to 68.8 in March, according to the latest monthly survey […]
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The cold weather of the winter season and the heating bills that followed may have hindered upstate New York consumers’ willingness to spend in March, according to an analyst at Siena College who tracks the data.
Consumer sentiment in upstate New York fell 5.3 points to 68.8 in March, according to the latest monthly survey the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released April 2.
Upstate’s overall-sentiment index of 68.8 is a combination of the current-sentiment and future-sentiment components. Upstate’s current-sentiment index of 73.1 fell 9.9 points from February, while the future-sentiment level slipped 2.5 points to 65.9, according to the SRI data.
The Upstate figure was 5.1 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 73.9, which fell 2.4 points from February, SRI said.
New York’s consumer-sentiment index was 6.1 points lower than the March figure of 80 for the entire nation, which fell 1.6 points from February, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.
The numbers in this survey left Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director, “surprised.”
March didn’t include a lot of bad economic news and Wall Street “did alright,” so Lonnstrom figured the sentiment numbers might rise in March.
“To me, it’s very clear the heating bills of January and February have hit home,” he contends.
The monthly survey also reflects greater concern about the prices of food and gas, two factors that Lonnstrom says can “dampen” consumer confidence. “I’m pretty sure that’s what happened here,” he says.
When compared with the previous three years, the state’s overall-confidence sentiment of 73.9 is down 0.6 points from March 2013, off 2.4 points from March 2012, and has increased 6.3 points compared to March 2011, according to the SRI data. The sentiment index measured 59.7 in March 2009.
In March, buying plans rose 4.5 points to 33.1 percent for consumer electronics; increased 3.6 points to 21.9 percent for furniture; and climbed 4.5 points to 18 percent for major home improvements. Buying plans fell 2.4 points to 11.7 percent for cars and trucks; and slipped 0.1 points to 3.8 percent for homes.
Gas and food prices
In SRI’s monthly analysis of gas and food prices, 64 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, up from 58 percent in February.
In addition, 57 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of gas, up from 51 percent in February, according to SRI.
“That’s a tremendous jump in one month,” Lonnstrom says.
When asked about food prices, 66 percent of Upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious effect on their finances, up from 62 percent in February.
About 68 percent of statewide respondents expressed concern about their food bills, up from 63 percent in February.
SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment in March by random telephone calls to 640 New York residents over the age of 18.
As consumer sentiment is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply, SRI stipulates.
Buying plans, which are shown as a percentage based on answers to specific questions, have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 points, SRI said.
Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com