Upstate real-estate indicators strengthen in 4th quarter

Upstate New York’s real-estate market showed some signs of stirring in the fourth quarter of 2012, according to new data.

The Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released its real-estate sentiment scores for the fourth quarter on Jan. 24. They showed upstate residents’ views brightening to the point where optimism outweighs pessimism.

Current real-estate sentiment in upstate New York jumped 16.9 points from the third quarter to 7.4, moving above a break-even point of zero. Scores above zero mean residents are more optimistic about the market, while scores below zero mean they are more pessimistic.

“This is a huge, huge movement,” says Donald Levy, SRI’s director. “Go back a year. Look at the fourth quarter of 2011. Upstate’s assessment of the overall current market — do you think things are getting better or worse — went from a -38, which is only two points better than the all-time low, to a positive 7.4.”

A score measuring sentiment across all of New York State also took a major step up in the fourth quarter. It leapt 11.9 points to 5.1, moving to its highest point in the three-year history of SRI’s real-estate readings.

Both upstate and statewide markets are in line to continue improving, according to SRI’s overall future real-estate sentiment scores. Upstate’s overall future score ticked up 1.5 points to 22.9, while the state’s increased 1.2 points to 27.9.

“This is one of the nicest, strongest pieces of economic news that we’ve put out in quite some time,” Levy says. “Every single one of the indicators is both moving in the positive direction and moving toward the thriving zone.”

Polling by SRI also measured residents’ opinions toward buying and selling homes. It found a changing market Upstate in which buyers still hold a slight advantage over sellers.

 The region’s current selling sentiment score climbed 8.7 points to -17.7. That trailed its current buying score, which slipped 1.9 points to 24.1.

Residents expected buyers and sellers to be on more even footing in the future. Upstate’s future selling score swelled 5.1 points to 18.5. Its future buying score added 4.1 points to 14.5.

“The collective opinion is that real estate is quickly coming back to being a strong, prudent investment in which real-estate commerce is not at gunpoint but rather a place where a willing seller and a willing buyer come together and everybody wins,” Levy says. “Everybody feels good.”

SRI polled 2,414 New York residents over the age of 18 in October, November, and December to develop its real-estate sentiment scores. It released the scores a few days after the New York State Association of Realtors (NYSAR) published data showing an increase in the number of homes sold in 2012.

Statewide, realtors closed on 93,582 sales of single-family homes, condos, and co-ops in 2012, NYSAR said on Jan. 22. That was 7 percent more than in 2011. The median price of sold homes edged up by 1.2 percent to $215,000.

Statistics for the fourth quarter showed statewide home sales rising to 23,694, up 6.1 percent from the same quarter of 2011. The median sale price for the fourth quarter was $215,000, up 5.1 percent.

Quarterly year-over-year statistics revealed more of a mixed picture in Central New York, the Mohawk Valley, and the Southern Tier. The number of homes sold in the fourth quarter fell in eight of the regions’ 16 counties and rose in eight. But the median sales price increased in nine counties, fell in six, and held even in one.

Broome County realtors sold 311 homes in the fourth quarter of 2012, down 16.2 percent from the year before. The median sales price also fell, dropping 2.6 percent to $102,314.

In Onondaga County, realtors sold 1,068 homes, up 8.9 percent from the year before. The median sales price ascended 1.6 percent to $130,000.

And in Oneida County, 399 homes sold in the fourth quarter, a decrease of 4.1 percent from the year before. However, the median sales price turned up 2.3 percent to $110,000.

Contact Seltzer at rseltzer@cnybj.com