Upstate New York consumers became more confident in the first quarter of this year, a new survey finds. Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 79.7 in the first quarter, up 8.7 points from the last measure of 71.0 in the fourth quarter of 2020. That’s according to the latest quarterly survey of upstate and […]
Upstate New York consumers became more confident in the first quarter of this year, a new survey finds.
Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 79.7 in the first quarter, up 8.7 points from the last measure of 71.0 in the fourth quarter of 2020. That’s according to the latest quarterly survey of upstate and statewide consumer sentiment that the Siena College Research Institute (SRI) released April 8.
Upstate’s overall sentiment of 79.7 was 2.8 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 82.5, which rose 7.7 points from the fourth quarter.
The statewide figure was 2.4 points lower than the first-quarter figure of 84.9 for the entire nation, which was up 4.2 from the fourth-quarter measurement, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.
All three indexes for New York rose this quarter with the current index approaching breakeven, and the overall and future indexes exceeding their break-even points at which optimism and pessimism balance. The national indexes all increased but New Yorkers are more optimistic about future economic conditions than the nation.
“Both New York, and the nation, saw consumer sentiment increase over the first quarter, and both reached highs not seen since the coronavirus pandemic began. Still, despite showing encouraging optimism, sentiment is not back to where it was prior to March of 2020. New Yorkers in general match the nation’s level of growing economic optimism while New York City residents are far rosier about the future. Increasing gasoline prices are driving pump-price concerns higher, while increasing vaccinations and stimulus checks may be responsible for a new record-high percentage — 31 percent — of state residents planning home improvements this spring,” Doug Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director, said.
In first quarter of 2021, buying plans rose 2.3 percentage points since the fourth quarter to 32 percent for furniture and increased 3.6 points to 31.1 percent for major home improvements. At the same time, buying plans fell 2.6 percentage points to 17.8 percent for cars and trucks, dipped 2.5 points to 47.1 percent for consumer electronics, and fell 3.4 points to 10 percent for homes.
Gas and food prices
In SRI’s quarterly analysis of gas and food prices, 47 percent of upstate New York respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, up from 29 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 31 percent in the third quarter of last year.
In addition, 43 percent of statewide respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly spending plans, up from 34 percent in the final quarter of 2020 and 30 percent in the last year’s third quarter.
When asked about food prices, 56 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, compared to 58 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 57 percent in the third quarter of last year.
At the same time, 57 percent of statewide respondents indicated the price of food was having a serious impact on their monthly finances, the same as the reading in the fourth quarter of 2020, but down from 59 percent in the third quarter.
SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment between March 1 and March 8 by random telephone calls to 400 New York adults via landline and cell phone. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, according to SRI.