Even though upstate New York consumers may not know what the future holds, they’re comfortable with buying big-ticket items now. And that confidence helped elevate the most recent gauge of consumer confidence. Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 79 in December, up 3.7 points from the last measurement in September. That’s according […]
Even though upstate New York consumers may not know what the future holds, they’re comfortable with buying big-ticket items now. And that confidence helped elevate the most recent gauge of consumer confidence.
Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 79 in December, up 3.7 points from the last measurement in September.
That’s according to the latest survey the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released Jan. 11.
The September measurement of 75.3 was down 6.3 points from the previous measurement in June.
Upstate’s overall-sentiment index of 79 is a combination of the current sentiment and future-sentiment components.
Upstate’s current-sentiment index of 87.5 increased 7.9 points in December, while the future-sentiment level rose 1 point to 73.5, according to the SRI data.
The current-sentiment reading is “high” and at a level “that is pulling up the overall index,” says Don Levy, SRI’s director.
“We’ve reached a point where there’s far more confidence in today than there is in tomorrow,” says Levy.
The Upstate sentiment reading of 79 is 10.3 points below the same reading for New York City. The difference was 12 points in September, as wide as it had been in more than two years.
Upstate’s overall sentiment was 6.2 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 85.2, which rose 2.7 points compared to September, SRI said.
New York state’s consumer-sentiment index was 7.4 points lower than the December figure of 92.6 for the entire nation, which rose 5.4 points from September, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.
All three indexes for both the nation and New York are well above their breakeven points at which optimism and pessimism balance “indicating strength in the consumer driven marketplace,” according to the SRI news release.
In December, buying plans were up 2.7 percentage points since the June measurement to 43 percent for consumer electronics; climbed 5.5 points to 27.7 percent for furniture; and inched up .6 points to 19.9 percent for major home improvements.
Siena researchers found nearly 60 percent of respondents say that “now is a good time to buy large-scale consumer items,” according to Levy.
Buying plans were down .3 points to 16.8 percent for cars and trucks; and fell 2.7 points to 7.7 percent for homes.
Even though a few of the buying plans are down, “they still remain well above their historic averages,” says Levy.
Gas and food prices
In SRI’s quarterly analysis of gas and food prices, 37 percent of Upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, which is down from 42 percent in September and 48 percent in both June and March.
In addition, 33 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of gas, down from 35 percent in September, 41 percent in June, and 37 percent in March.
“Gasoline is down to a number — and is predicted to stay at or about that number — that we hadn’t seen in a long time, nor do we even expect to see again,” says Levy.
Levy contends that the lower gas prices are a factor in the survey’s current-sentiment reading and in the consumer buying plans as well.
When asked about food prices, 66 percent of Upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, down from 73 percent in September and 67 percent in June.
The December figure is the same as the measurement taken in March 2015.
At the same time, 67 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of food, down from 69 percent in September, up from 65 percent in June, and 64 percent in March, according to the SRI data.
SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment between Nov. 16 and Dec. 7, 2015 by telephone calls conducted in English to 801 New York residents.
Researchers asked for the youngest male in the household to initiate respondent sampling.
It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points, including the design effects resulting from weighting when applied to buying plans and/or the perceived impacts of gas and food prices.
As consumer sentiment is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply to those indices.
SRI conducted sampling via a stratified, dual-frame probability sample provided by Survey Sampling International of landline and cell-phone telephone numbers from within New York state weighted to reflect known population patterns.