Upstate, statewide consumer sentiment decline in Q1

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York fell 3.4 points to 60.6 in the first quarter of this year from the last measure of 64.0 in the final quarter of 2021.

That’s according to the latest quarterly survey of upstate and statewide consumer sentiment that the Siena College Research Institute (SRI) released April 7. 

Upstate’s overall sentiment of 60.6 in the first quarter was 7.4 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 68.0, which fell 5.1 points from the fourth quarter. 

The statewide reading was 8.6 points higher than the first-quarter figure of 59.4 for the entire nation, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

Both the current and future indexes fell about 5 points resulting in New York’s decline from 73.1 last quarter to 68.0 today. The national indexes all decreased between six and nine points in the last quarter, per SRI. Overall confidence is higher in New York than nationally with future confidence in New York below the breakeven point of optimism and pessimism but 17.5 points higher than a national low of future confidence not seen since October 2011.

Inflation plus war equals uncertainty for consumers, Don Levy, director of SRI, said. 

“The index has fallen to where it briefly stood when the coronavirus first slammed our economy. New York’s overall and future numbers are much higher than the national outlook owing to a partisan economic sentiment divide in which Democrats — a better than 2-1 advantage in New York — remain upbeat about the future while Republicans in this survey recorded the lowest consumer sentiment score ever recorded in a Siena survey,” Levy said. “Gas prices and their impact is taking our collective breath away hitting Republicans, Upstaters, and women the hardest. While buying plans remained strong, increasing for cars, major home improvements are nearly seven points under last year’s forecast.”

In the first quarter of 2022, buying plans in New York rose 2.8 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2021 measurement to 20.6 percent for cars/trucks, and inched up 1.1 points to 11.1 percent for homes. Buying plans were down 6.4 points to 40.7 percent for consumer electronics, declined 4.9 points to 27.1 percent for furniture, and fell 6.7 percent to 24.4 percent for major home improvements, SRI said. 

Gas and food prices

In SRI’s quarterly analysis of gas and food prices, 73 percent of upstate New York respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, up from 70 percent in the final quarter of 2021 and 58 percent in the third quarter of last year.

In addition, 66 percent of statewide respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly spending plans, up from 61 percent in the fourth quarter of last year and 54 percent in both the third and second quarters of 2021.

When asked about food prices, 69 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, down from 75 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 but up from 65 percent in the third quarter of last year.

At the same time, 72 percent of statewide respondents indicated the price of food was having a serious impact on their monthly finances, which is the same as the fourth quarter of 2021 but up from 66 percent in the third quarter of last year.

SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment from March 14-17 by random telephone calls to 401 New York adults via landline and cell phone. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, according to SRI.