Upstate New Yorkers became less confident about economic conditions in the third quarter of 2021. Consumer sentiment in Upstate was measured at 63.4 in the third quarter, down 13.2 points from the last reading of 76.6 in this year’s second quarter. The latest reading represents Upstate’s lowest overall index score since 2011. That’s according to […]
Upstate New Yorkers became less confident about economic conditions in the third quarter of 2021.
Consumer sentiment in Upstate was measured at 63.4 in the third quarter, down 13.2 points from the last reading of 76.6 in this year’s second quarter. The latest reading represents Upstate’s lowest overall index score since 2011.
That’s according to the latest quarterly survey of Upstate and statewide consumer sentiment that the Siena College Research Institute (SRI) released Oct. 14.
Upstate’s overall sentiment of 63.4 was 8.5 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 71.9, which fell 11.8 points from the second quarter.
The statewide figure was 0.9 points lower than the third-quarter reading of 72.8 for the entire nation, which was down 12.7 points from the second-quarter figure, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.
The overall, current, and future indexes for New York all decreased this quarter and are below the breakeven point at which optimism and pessimism balance. The overall, current, and future national indexes also decreased. New Yorkers, while not as confident as before, are still more optimistic about future economic conditions than the nation as a whole, SRI noted.
“A lingering pandemic, inflation, supply chain concerns and little good news out of Washington pulled the plug on consumer sentiment as summer turned to fall. With virtually every number down, most future numbers by double digits, consumers’ willingness to spend even as the holiday season approaches, hit a statewide low since June 2020 and a low not seen since 2011 among Upstaters,” Doug Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director, said in the SRI report. “Plans to purchase major consumer goods all fell with major home improvements down by 10 percentage points. And as gasoline prices have left $3.00 in the rearview mirror, over half of New Yorkers are again sighing at the pump and worse yet, food prices have two-thirds [of respondents], highest since 2015, crying at the grocery checkout lines.”
In the third quarter of 2021, buying plans fell 3.4 percentage points from the second-quarter measure to 19.1 percent for cars and trucks, dipped 1.7 points to 45.5 percent for consumer electronics, slipped 1.7 points to 30.1 percent for furniture, declined 3.3 points to 10.1 percent for homes, and fell 10.3 points to 24.2 percent for major home improvements.
Gas and food prices
In SRI’s quarterly analysis of gas and food prices, 58 percent of upstate New York respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, up from 57 percent in the second quarter and 47 percent in the first quarter.
In addition, 54 percent of statewide respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly spending plans, which was the same as the second quarter’s measurement and up from 43 percent in the first quarter.
When asked about food prices, 65 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, up from 64 percent in the second quarter and from 56 percent in the first quarter.
At the same time, 66 percent of statewide respondents indicated the price of food was having a serious impact on their monthly finances, up from 63 percent in the second quarter and 57 percent in the first quarter.
SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment between Sept. 29 and Oct. 7 by random telephone calls to 394 New York adults via landline and cell phone. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, according to SRI.