Upstate, statewide consumer sentiment rise in fourth quarter

Upstate New York consumers are becoming more confident about economic conditions, according to a new survey report.

Consumer sentiment in the region was measured at 90.4 in the fourth quarter of 2017, up 1.5 points from the last reading in third quarter, according to the latest quarterly survey that the Siena (College) Research Institute (SCRI) released Thursday.

Upstate’s overall sentiment of 90.4 was 1.9 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 92.3, which rose 1.8 points from the third quarter.

The statewide figure was 3.6 points lower than the fourth-quarter figure of 95.9 for the entire nation, which was up 0.8 points from the third-quarter measurement, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

Consumer sentiment increased by nearly two points in New York this quarter and closed the gap with national confidence by a point, Don Levy, SCRI director, said in the news release.

“Future confidence was up by close to 3 points, leads the nation by over 4 points and is greater than it was either last year or two years ago as we usher in 2018. Sentiment, overall, current and future is higher today among every demographic group than it was the last two times we toasted a New Year except among New Yorkers earning under $50K. Despite having sentiment scores well above the breakeven point, lower income residents feel more bullish than they did last year but today stand at the exact same scores as they had two years ago. All other groups are up from last year and significantly up from two years ago,” said Levy.

Gas and food prices

In SRI’s quarterly analysis of gas and food prices, 36 percent of Upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, down from 45 percent in the third quarter and 30 percent in the second quarter.

In addition, 34 percent of statewide respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly spending plans, down from 36 percent in the third quarter and up from 27 percent in the second quarter.

When asked about food prices, 53 percent of Upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, down from 56 percent in the third quarter and up from 52 percent in the second quarter.

At the same time, 58 percent of statewide respondents indicated that the price of food was having a serious effect on their monthly finances, up from 56 percent in both the third and second quarters.

SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment between Nov. 6 and Nov. 15 via telephone calls conducted in English to 804 New York residents. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, according to SRI.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com