Upstate, statewide consumer sentiment slide in June

Upstate consumers are feeling less buoyant about the economy than last quarter, according to a new survey report. Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 90.1 in June, down 6.6 points from the last reading in March.

That’s according to the latest quarterly survey that the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released on July 6.

Upstate and statewide consumer sentiment in March had climbed to their highest level since 2000, SRI said then. The March reading of 96.7 was up 10.2 points from the previous measurement in November of 86.5.

Upstate’s overall sentiment of 90.1 was 2.0 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 92.1, which fell 2.0 points from March. 

The statewide figure was 3.0 points lower than the June figure of 95.1 for the entire nation, which fell 1.8 points from March, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

“Consumer sentiment, both nationally and in New York fell by a couple of points this quarter, but both measures remain substantially above the breakeven point an indication that the willingness to spend among consumers is strong. The decline in New York resulted from a six point drop outside of New York City where sentiment held steady. Republicans enjoy a sentiment score over 20 points higher than their score a year ago, have an especially bullish attitude towards their current economic state, but saw their assessment of the future fall by nearly 10 points this quarter. Democrats are down six points from a year ago, have overall confidence almost ten points below Republicans, but saw an increase in their future outlook,” Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SCRI founding director, said in the release.

In June, buying plans rose 1.5 percentage points since the March 2017 measurement to 44.2 percent for consumer electronics and rose 0.4 points to 21.2 percent for major home improvements. 

Buying plans fell 3.2 points to 15.3 percent for cars/trucks, dipped 5 points to 25 percent for furniture, and slipped 0.9 points to 9.2 percent for homes.

“Buying plans for cars and trucks, furniture and homes all slipped a little from near record numbers last quarter, but in each case, significant percentages of consumers are out shopping,” Lonnstrom said.

Gas and food prices

In SRI’s quarterly analysis of gas and food prices, 30 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, down from 37 percent in March and 34 percent in November.

In addition, 27 percent of statewide respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly spending plans, off from 34 percent in March and 29 percent in both November and September of last year.

When asked about food prices, 52 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious effect on their finances, down from 53 percent in March and 67 percent in November.

At the same time, 56 percent of statewide respondents indicated the price of food was having a serious impact on their monthly finances, down from 59 percent in March and 63 percent in both November and September.

“Concern over both gas and food prices either tied (gas) or set (food) all time record lows this quarter. Fewer New Yorkers are now worried about the financial impact of gas and food than at any point in the nine years that Siena has measured the household economic impact of those necessities,” said Lonnstrom.

SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment between June 5 and June 21 by telephone calls conducted in English to 808 New York residents.

The survey has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points, according SRI.