Area still has lowest confidence in the state Utica-Rome–area residents increased their willingness to spend in the fourth quarter of 2011 along with consumers in most other parts of the state. Overall consumer confidence in the Utica-Rome metropolitan statistical area (MSA) rose 3.7 points to 56.2, according to the Quarterly Consumer Confidence Survey from […]
Area still has lowest confidence in the state
Utica-Rome–area residents increased their willingness to spend in the fourth quarter of 2011 along with consumers in most other parts of the state.
Overall consumer confidence in the Utica-Rome metropolitan statistical area (MSA) rose 3.7 points to 56.2, according to the Quarterly Consumer Confidence Survey from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). Utica-Rome was one of seven MSAs in New York State where consumer confidence rose.
Even with the increase, confidence in Utica-Rome floundered below levels seen in the rest of the state. Utica-Rome was home to the lowest confidence level in New York.
Binghamton had the next-lowest confidence level. Consumer confidence in the Binghamton MSA jumped 6 points in the fourth quarter, but still languished at 56.8.
“Numbers in the fifties are disturbing,” says SRI Director Donald Levy. “What that means is that you have widespread belief in the market that next year is going to be a bad year.”
None of the survey’s results reflected optimistic consumers. Rochester had the highest consumer confidence in the state, gaining 7.4 points to 70.7, but still did not get above the SRI survey’s break-even point.
The survey’s break-even point, which is 76.01, is the point at which more consumers respond with optimistic answers than pessimistic answers. That means results below 76.01 indicate a majority of consumers responded pessimistically.
“Breaking even, if you stop to think about it, is not great,” Levy says. “You want to be a full dozen points over breaking even. That’s an economic environment where people are feeling that things are good.”
Consumer confidence also grew in the Mid-Hudson MSA, where it climbed 4 points to 60.3. In the Buffalo MSA, confidence increased by 3.5 points to 64.6, and in Long Island it inched up 1 point to 62.8. New York City hosted the smallest move upward — 0.9 points to 66.1.
Confidence moved in the opposite direction in Syracuse and Albany. It fell 2.5 points to 60.6 in Syracuse and dropped 2.4 points to 62.7 in Albany.
“Syracuse is standing out,” Levy says. “It’s certainly someplace that was, across the board, moving in the wrong direction in the fourth quarter.”
SRI made random telephone calls to adults over the age of 18 to conduct the survey. Each MSA index is based on more than 400 respondents, with the exception of New York City and Long Island. SRI averages results from its monthly consumer-confidence surveys to develop quarterly indexes for New York City and Long Island.
Current and future confidence
Utica-Rome’s boost in overall confidence came from bolstered current and future confidence levels. SRI measures overall confidence by combining current and future confidence readings.
Current confidence in Utica-Rome climbed 3.8 points to 62.6, while future confidence moved up 3.7 points to 52.1.
Binghamton also experienced rising current and future confidence. Current confidence in Binghamton climbed 3.8 points to 62.9. Future confidence spiked 7.3 points to 52.8.
In contrast, current confidence in Syracuse tumbled 4.9 points to 65.6. Future confidence dropped 1 point to 57.4.
Buying plans
SRI asked consumers in each of the nine MSAs about their buying plans over the next six months. Consumers in each area indicated whether they planned to buy a car or truck, a computer, furniture, a home, or a major home improvement.
The percentage of respondents planning to make a purchase increased in 24 of the 45 categories across the state, when compared to results from SRI’s third-quarter 2011 survey. The percentage planning to buy decreased in 18 categories and held steady in three.
In the Utica-Rome MSA, consumers’ purchasing plans increased in three categories — cars and trucks, computers, and furniture. The portion of consumers planning to buy a car or truck rose 3 points to 10.5 percent. The historic average for that category is 10.9 percent.
The portion of consumers planning to buy a computer rose 0.3 points to 11 percent, above the historical average of 8.7 percent. And the portion of consumers planning to buy furniture increased 0.5 points to 13.9 percent. It remained above the historic average for that category, which is 12.7 percent.
Plans remained unchanged for homes at 2.9 percent. That’s slightly above the historical average of 2.4 percent. Buying plans for major home improvements fell 6 points to 15.4 percent, below the historical average of 17.5 percent.