The Utica–Rome area was home to one of the state’s largest jumps in consumer confidence during the fourth quarter of 2012, although the region wasn’t able to shake its designation of having the least willing-to-spend residents in New York. Overall confidence swelled 5.8 points in the Utica–Rome metropolitan statistical area (MSA) to 68.2, according to […]
The Utica–Rome area was home to one of the state’s largest jumps in consumer confidence during the fourth quarter of 2012, although the region wasn’t able to shake its designation of having the least willing-to-spend residents in New York.
Overall confidence swelled 5.8 points in the Utica–Rome metropolitan statistical area (MSA) to 68.2, according to the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). It was the third-highest confidence increase in the state.
The size of the Mohawk Valley region’s consumer-confidence spike trailed only Binghamton, where a 7-point boost propelled its overall-confidence index to 72.6, and Syracuse, where a 6.2-point climb moved its overall confidence to 74.2. However, none of these upstate regions could move above the overall-confidence level displayed by New York City.
The New York MSA posted the top confidence level in the state. It notched 84.7 after edging up 2.3 points in the fourth quarter.
Utica–Rome, Binghamton, and Syracuse also failed to top the overall-confidence index’s break-even point of 76 — failures indicating their consumers were more pessimistic than optimistic. Readings below 76 show prevailing pessimism, while readings above 76 mean consumers were more optimistic.
Even so, consumers across New York state are clearly becoming more willing to spend, according to Donald Levy, SRI’s director.
“We’re looking at every single region being up,” he says. “I think we’ve taken a major step up in how consumers feel.”
In the rest of the state, overall consumer confidence in the Rochester MSA rose 3.9 points to 77.8 and Albany gained 3.2 points to 76.8. Long Island confidence picked up 3.4 points to 73.6, while the Mid-Hudson region tacked on 2.6 points to rise to 72.2. Buffalo’s confidence rose 3.4 points to tie Syracuse at 74.2.
Consumer confidence picked up the most steam in the fourth quarter’s first two months, according to Levy. Its momentum slowed in December amid a drip of bad economic news, he adds.
“What most people are saying is that the holiday season was a little disappointing,” Levy says. “Also, folks are going to start experiencing that 2 percent cut in pay that is the payroll tax.
“We’re at a tenuous point,” he says. “If the wind gets pulled out from the sails, if we experience debt-ceiling gridlock, if the [stock] market suddenly moves back down, if gas prices go up, that’s going to stall consumer confidence.”
Current and future confidence
SRI also breaks down its consumer-confidence measurements into current and future indicators. Utica–Rome’s current confidence increased 2.3 points to 69.4, and its future confidence soared 8 points to 67.4.
Binghamton’s current confidence ballooned 9.4 points to 76.9, and its future confidence increased 5.3 points to 69.8. Syracuse’s current confidence dropped 0.4 points to 74.3 — the only current or future indicator to fall in the state’s nine MSAs — while its future confidence rocketed up 10.5 points to 74.2.
Buying plans
Consumers planned more major purchases in the next six months, according to SRI’s data. The research institute polled consumers in each of the state’s nine MSAs on whether they plan on buying a car or truck, a computer, furniture, a home, or a major home improvement.
Plans to make those purchases increased in 35 of 45 possible statewide categories. They fell in only 10 categories.
In the Mohawk Valley, consumers said they wanted to make more major purchases in all measured categories.
The Utica–Rome MSA’s consumers pushed up plans to buy cars and trucks by 3.2 points to 13.6 percent. That was above the region’s historical average for vehicle-buying plans, in which only 11.1 percent of consumers anticipate making a car or truck purchase.
Plans to buy computers clicked up 2.5 points to 12.9 percent, above their historical average of 9 percent. And furniture-buying plans added 1.6 points to 14.6 percent, outpacing their historical level of 13 percent.
Home-buying plans in the region also rose, gaining 2.2 points to 3.6 percent, which is higher than the category’s historical average of 2.5 percent. And plans to purchase major home improvements surged 3.3 points to 19.5 percent. Historically, only 17.4 percent of Utica–Rome consumers plan major home improvements.
SRI developed its quarterly confidence indexes by making random telephone calls to consumers over the age of 18. It surveyed more than 400 people in each of the state’s metropolitan areas except New York City and Long Island, where it developed its quarterly indexes by averaging its monthly consumer-confidence surveys. The research institute released the quarterly data Jan. 10.
Contact Seltzer at rseltzer@cnybj.com